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offensive novaga 2011 adznachylasya in Belarus once in two events that have occurred if not simultaneously: a long-awaited signing of Alexander Lukashenko directive number 4 and neprodolzheniya mandate of the OSCE Office in Minsk.
Such a contradiction in the conditions of Belarus can not survive for long. But it is possible that power can use it for some drastic action in the short term. Question - what.
from European Burma to Europe Singapore
directive number 4 on the liberalization of the economy for all its minor shortcomings, being a framework document with no specific deadlines for implementation, there is a very important step in the right direction. After years of power finally talking about the private entrepreneurs as "hardworking, educated and talented people," not "lousy fleas, the state finally announced its intention to create a friendly business environment, not to shake hands with the last employer.
By the way, hardly anyone has done for the appearance of Directive and, respectively, for real positive change in the country that it can bring, more than not loved by many now Yaroslav Romanchuk.
This trend an even more drastic reforms in the economy Belarusian authorities refined combined with brutal repression against dissidents and diplomatically polite-exile OSCE office in Belarus. Liberation of entrepreneurial initiatives plus an increase of the brutal regime of meaning, so one more step on the road many times predicted "singapuryzatsyi" Belarus.
malaimaverna However, such a policy can be successful and provide long-term stability of authoritarian regime in the country, which borders the European Union, and where the problem is the lack of opportunities for self-realization of people long ago formed in a broad protest movement with clear political demands.
also associated with election attack authoritarian Belarusian regime clearly worked against the attractiveness of Belarus to foreign investors.
bloody ending of the campaign turned into a blow to the country's image, which showed itself not as an undeveloped investors, "El Dorado" in the middle of Europe, an image which is gradually beginning to emerge in 2010, and in the familiar role of a "European Burmese, with a bloody crackdown on peaceful demonstrations, and hundreds arrested. West quite adequately responded to the post-election crackdown on opposition, and the reaction will continue. Signs lasting pacifying with Russia is also still no new conflict is a matter of time.
Thus, if the government wants foreign investment, it will have as soon as possible to release political prisoners, far increase their activity and to restore the liberalization is significant-demakratyzatsyynuyu activities.
Does the power of any special plans for 2011?
Another thing is that the brutal repression strike in any case will have some desired effect in the short mode (6-12 months) term: up to the moment when the opposition does not apravitstsa from the shock of being reorganized and until the international pressure will force it to release leaders prison.
question is, what treatment may be necessary a priori, a short-term increase in violence.
Among some commentators have circulated thesis that in 2011 supposedly to make a year behind the scenes of privatization of assets in favor of the modern elite. This would, of course, a good sign: firstly, privatization is better behind the scenes than no privatization, and secondly, it would be difficult to expect that privatization in today's environment could go a different way.
Meanwhile, the assignment of lucrative state assets at low prices, close to the power of people in conflict with the need to finance the cost costs through the sale of these assets.
Therefore nomenclature privatization would be a symptom of the fact that the current elite, the language of financial markets, "Fixes Income: turning assets into cash. So, is preparing to exit the game or at least change its rules, for example, reformat system governance on the basis of the "ruling party".
However, changing the rules of the game that you want to short-term "agaloshanne" organized opposition, may Not be accompanied by the nomenklatura privatization. Conditions, however, created for any of these options.
http://n-europe.eu/columns/2011/01/11/belaruskaya_ulada_pamizh_ekanamichnai_liberalizatsyyai_i_zachystkai_apazitsyi
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