And I'll tell you what:
Area 2010 ended in a largely predictable. Moreover, unlike in 2006, not ashamed of the opposition leaders, who are now not afraid to be in the middle of the action, instead of to dissolve the people to their homes.
Some foreign media talk about the "defeat of the opposition." But if you draw a different possible scenario for street protests, the seizure of state power, or even a building of the CEC or the BT by demonstrators was a priori unrealistic.
forces were, by definition, irregular - with the current regime and the current situation. Even if we imagine that the opposition took control of Government House - now what? Protect it from internal forces? How? Why?
Even managed to get the talks with Lukashenko, it is would be only the beginning of the process with an uncertain and likely to end in tears. What good are the arrangements with the present regime, long seen in his experience and the Supreme Council convened in 1996 and Russia in the construction process with Lukashenko "union state", and the European Union with its Eastern Partnership.
But on December 19, seeing the process of forming the official election results, we could once again make sure that the sense to nominate a single democratic candidate really was not.
It is through the allocation of nine candidates, rather than one, the opposition fully take advantage of the opportunities during the campaign agitation. As a result of the campaign we have now a number of opposition politicians promoted on a national scale. UCP has acquired a new face in the face Not only Anatoly Lebedko, but Yaroslav Romanchuk. The broad masses learned about "The Belarusian Christian Democracy and Vital Rymasheuski, learned that the BPF may be close to the people and Gregory Kostusev. Political capital gained Sannikov and Nyaklyaeu, although whether they can continue to use them, not enjoying the etabliyavanyya structure, remains a question.
This power can not be defeated in elections and in the forehead. The real goal, which must be achieved, - It does not fall of the regime, but his gradual transformation.
Lukashenko and analysts close to it and spread the promises: that in Belarus built, so to speak, strong democratic institutions, where the economy works to the benefit of the population, and now it is just a little padladits these institutions to Western standards. So we'll see. Retreat to the authorities especially nowhere, the need for reform has not disappeared. Demonstration of protest capacity, is obsessed with the central square of opposition, even if there is no real threat of popular revolt and revolution, very well contribute to the Reformed mood on a purely emotional level.
Democratic opposition to achieve its purpose: instsenizatsyya democratic elections failed, the protest was expressed, Strap Square-2006 has been enhanced. West did not recognize the election and Russia spoke dryly pointed out. Lukashenko's harder to negotiate with the EU against the background of battered journalists and politicians. Reconciliation with Russia and should not be regarded as very strong: the Kremlin expects the first signs of the inevitable neglect of Arrangements by Lukashenko to overtake him with a vengeance.
We saw that the opposition should be like an octopus: a decentralized, ubiquitous, pluralistic, but coordinated by a small number of key positions. From hard neprymiralnyh to "constructive", from Belarusian-up Russophiles, the leftist anarchists to hadekav from ill Statkevich to correct Mikhalevich.
Such opposition can not "disconnect", it is impossible to separate the water. Each opposition structure should focus on a particular topic: Who's the economy, who is in the Belarusian language, who at the local, say, management. And if goes quite far in the dreams, the excess of the opposition in the government - it is better than once honorable political prisoner.
/ / http://n-europe.eu/columns/2010/12/21/peramoga_nepazbezhnaya
RUS : Protests Minsk ended predictably, however, such frustration, as after 2006, no. Authorities will continue the transformation of the country, new opportunities for opposition will continue to occur. The victory in the end, I would say, inevitable.
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